Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
