President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to present the documentation to the Russian leadership.
Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist
After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.
Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.
Security Guarantees and International Support
“The plan involves five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
On Monday, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.
Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, including through conducting operations within its territory.”
However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.
Kremlin Response and Land Issue
On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept troops from NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”
The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. A key demand involves Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.
American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security formations rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.
“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.
Next Steps and Possible Scenarios
It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.
“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.
“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.
