Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
